Nicolás Idrobo

Nicolás Idrobo

Postdoctoral Research Associate
Program for Quantitative and Analytical Political Science (QAPS)
Department of Politics
Princeton University

Welcome to my website.

I am a Postdoctoral Research Associate in the Program for Quantitative and Analytical Political Science (QAPS) in the Department of Politics at Princeton University.

I study the political economy of authoritarian rule, state power, and credible empirical inference in Latin America.

My job market paper develops a formal model and uses Venezuelan administrative microdata to show how economic sanctions can reshape an autocracy’s domestic opposition through selective emigration. A companion project examines how public employment and pensions are distributed across the regime’s supporters and opponents during crisis.

A second line of work studies how state institutions shape political competition and public order in Latin America. In Colombia, I study how political brokers connect elections to public contracts, and how criminal justice reform reshapes police behavior and public safety.

I also work on credible inference in political science. My research on Bolivia shows how routine election-administration processes and misapplied research designs can produce unfounded fraud claims, and my methodological work examines regression discontinuity designs, sparse-panel difference-in-differences, covariate overlap, and long-run changes in empirical practice.

My work has appeared in the Journal of Politics, World Development, and with Cambridge University Press, among other outlets.

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Publications

  1. Idrobo, Nicolás, Dorothy Kronick, and Francisco Rodríguez. 2026. “On Unfounded Claims of Electoral Fraud.”
    World Development 198: 107155.
    Final draft | Replication | Publication

  2. Cattaneo, Matias D., Nicolás Idrobo, and Rocío Titiunik. 2024. A Practical Introduction to Regression Discontinuity Designs: Extensions.
    Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    Final draft | Replication | Publication

  3. Idrobo, Nicolás, Dorothy Kronick, and Francisco Rodríguez. 2022. “Do Shifts in Late-Counted Votes Signal Fraud? Evidence from Bolivia.”
    The Journal of Politics 84(4): 2202–2215.
    Final draft | Replication | Publication | Media coverage: NYT (English, Spanish), Crisis Group
    OAS Response | Nooruddin’s Response | Our Response to Nooruddin

  4. Cattaneo, Matias D., Nicolás Idrobo, and Rocío Titiunik. 2020. A Practical Introduction to Regression Discontinuity Designs: Foundations.
    Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    Final draft | Replication | Publication | Erratum

  5. Idrobo, Nicolás, Daniel Mejía, and Ana María Tribín. 2014. “Illegal Gold Mining and Violence in Colombia.”
    Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 20(1): 83–111.
    Publication

Working papers

  1. [Job market paper, new version] Sanctions and Selective Opposition Exit: Evidence from Venezuela. May 2026.
    Revisions requested by the American Political Science Review.
    Latest draft | SSRN

  2. How Police and Crime Respond to Courts: Evidence from Colombia, with Dorothy Kronick and Tara Slough. November 2025.
    Revisions requested by the American Journal of Political Science.
    Latest draft

Work in progress

  1. Unequal Protection: Public Jobs, Pensions, and Political Loyalty under Chavismo. May 2026.

  2. Waves Apart: The Limits of Pre-Trends Tests in Sparse Panels, with Carolina Torreblanca. May 2026.

  3. The Advent of the Inference Era: Science Production in Economics and Political Science since 1970, with Arthur Lupia, Hwayong Shin and Rocío Titiunik. February 2025.

  4. Patronage After the Election: Brokers, Coalitions, and Public Contracts in Colombia, with Pablo Querubín, Miguel Rueda and Nelson Ruiz. February 2025.

  5. Covariate Distributions and Feasible Questions in Comparative Politics and Political Economy, with Rocío Titiunik. October 2023.