Nicolás Idrobo

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Updated on January 2026

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I am a Postdoctoral Research Associate in the Program for Quantitative and Analytical Political Science (QAPS) in the Department of Politics at Princeton University.

My research lies at the intersection of political economy and quantitative methodology, with a regional focus on Latin America. My job market paper studies the Venezuelan case to show how broad economic sanctions can backfire. By translating economic costs onto the population, sanctions induce emigration that is politically selective, disproportionately encouraging regime opponents to exit. This release of political pressure helps explain why the Maduro regime was able to survive for years after sanctions were imposed, even amid severe economic decline.

In related work, I examine how institutions and international actors affect political accountability, electoral processes, and state responses to political crises in developing countries. I also maintain an active research agenda in applied political methodology, focusing on causal inference, and the interpretation of quantitative evidence in policy-relevant settings.

My work has appeared in the Journal of Politics, Cambridge Elements, and World Development, among other outlets.

Contact information:
idrobo@princeton.edu
Department of Politics
Princeton University
001 Fisher Hall
Princeton, NJ 08544-1012
CV Email Google Scholar

Main publications

  1. Idrobo, Nicolás, Dorothy Kronick, and Francisco Rodríguez. 2026. “On Unfounded Claims of Electoral Fraud.” World Development 198: 107155.
    Final draft | Replication | Publication

  2. Cattaneo, Matias D., Nicolás Idrobo, and Rocío Titiunik. 2024. A Practical Introduction to Regression Discontinuity Designs: Extensions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    Final draft | Replication | Publication

  3. Idrobo, Nicolás, Dorothy Kronick, and Francisco Rodríguez. 2022. “Do Shifts in Late-Counted Votes Signal Fraud? Evidence from Bolivia.” The Journal of Politics 84(4): 2202–2215.
    Final draft | Replication | Publication | Media coverage: NYT (English, Spanish), Crisis Group
    OAS Response | Nooruddin’s Response | Our Response to Nooruddin

  4. Cattaneo, Matias D., Nicolás Idrobo, and Rocío Titiunik. 2020. A Practical Introduction to Regression Discontinuity Designs: Foundations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    Final draft | Replication | Publication | Erratum

  5. Idrobo, Nicolás, Daniel Mejía, and Ana María Tribín. 2014. “Illegal Gold Mining and Violence in Colombia.” Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 20(1): 83–111.
    Publication

Working papers

  1. [Job market paper] Why Economic Sanctions Backfire: the Role of Emigration and the Venezuelan Case. October, 2025. Submitted.
    Latest draft

  2. How Police and Crime Respond to Courts: Evidence from Colombia, with Dorothy Kronick and Tara Slough. November, 2025. Submitted.
    Latest draft

Work in progress

  1. The Failed War on Pre-Trial Detention: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Reform, with Dorothy Kronick and Ángela Zorro Medina. February, 2025.

  2. The Advent of the Inference Era: Science Production in Economics and Political Science since 1970, with Arthur Lupia, Hwayong Shin and Rocío Titiunik. February, 2025.

  3. The Hidden Power of Money: How Campaign Contributions to Legislators Buy Legislative Influence, with Pablo Querubin, Miguel Rueda and Nelson Ruiz. February, 2025.

  4. Covariate Distributions and Feasible Questions in Comparative Politics and Political Economy, with Rocío Titiunik. October, 2023.